Simultaneous Econometric Model for The Determinants of Wheat Production and Consumption in Egypt

Elmisalamy, Amira Ismail; Abdelmaqsoud, Abdullah; Mohamed, Basma

doi:10.21608/alexja.2024.336862.1107

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	Simultaneous Econometric Model for The Determinants of Wheat Production and Consumption in Egypt "نموذج قياسي آني لمحددات إنتاج واستهلاك القمح في مصر"
Article 3, Volume 70, Issue 1, March 2025, Page 27-34 PDF (1.86 MB)
Document Type: Original Article
DOI: 10.21608/alexja.2024.336862.1107
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Authors
Amira Ismail Elmisalamy ; Abdullah Abdelmaqsoud ; Basma Mohamed
Department of Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Agriculture, Ain Shams University, Cairo, Egypt
Receive Date: 16 November 2024, Revise Date: 05 December 2024, Accept Date: 05 December 2024
Abstract
The research problem was represented in the continuous increase in the Egyptian wheat import bill due to the inability of production to cover consumption, although many studies of wheat crops focus on one aspect rather than the other, for example, a study of wheat production in isolation from consumption, foreign trade, manufacturing and vice versa, and this matter negatively affects the determination of production and consumption policies. Therefore, the research mainly aimed to limit the increasing wheat imports and to establish a mechanism for drawing up a policy for decision-makers that contributes to bridging the deficit in the trade balance and the balance of payments. This is done by studying the development of economic production phenomena affecting wheat production and consumption in Egypt, and trying to build a real-time standard economic model to identify the most important determinants of wheat production and consumption in Egypt during the period (2001-2022), in addition to trying to predict wheat production, consumption and imports until 2030. According to the research objective and the nature of the available data, the simultaneous equations model was used, which was estimated using the three-stage least squares (3SLS) method. The research relied on published secondary statistical data such as: foreign trade bulletins issued by the Central Agency for Public Mobilization and Statistics, annual agricultural statistics bulletins issued by the Ministry of Agriculture and Land Reclamation, and the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) database, the World Trade Organization TREADMAP, in addition to references and scientific research related to the research topic.
Keywords
Simultaneous Equations; Wheat Consumption; Wheat Production; Egyptian Wheat Imports
Main Subjects
Agricultural Economic and Social Sciences


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Simultaneous Econometric Model for The Determinants of Wheat Production and Consumption in Egypt "نموذج قياسي آني لمحددات إنتاج واستهلاك القمح في مصر"