An Analytical Study for the Risk and Uncertainty for Agricultural Production in New Valley Governorate "دراسة تحليلية للمخاطرة واللآيقين للإنتاج الزراعي في محافظة الوادي الجديد"

The risk has an important effect on the farmer's decisions making toward the farm planning and also affects crops' patterns the effective levels of the risk on agricultural production are different from one region to another because the natural and economic conditions are different. The study used (MOTAD) model to define the best product combination of the suggested crops activities, aiming at the reduction of potential risks and estimating the costs, and comparing it with the present crop pattern, therefore, determining the agricultural crops which are characterized by increased or decrease of risk in the new valley governorate. Therefore, suitable agricultural policies could be made to face the possible increase in risk. The most important results of the study are represented in the potentiality of rationalizing the agricultural water resources with about 6.7% in the new valley governorate, Reviewing the present crop structure through expansion in the cultivated crops which need less water for irrigation and reducing cultivated of crops need high water consumption if the risk factor is taken into consideration, the most potential risk cost is estimated at 218.52 million pounds which represent about 10.6% of the expected income of the agricultural crops in the new valley governorate, there's a possibility to realize the same level of income from the present crop pattern of the new land with less risk potentiality about 5.6%. The study recommends the necessity of following a clear-cut agricultural policy depending on avoiding potential risks before it occurs, as a preventive method adjusting the crop pattern periodically to avoid the agricultural risks after their occurrence as a treatment method through following the agricultural insurance policy done by the state. According to it, the state will compensate the farmers and agricultural producers for any harm or loss done to their products which results in a consequent reduction in their income, this policy is based on the semi-optional system. The study recommends also making wheat, peanut, rice, sesame, red beet, legume crops, some vegetable crops like winter tomatoes, winter marrow, winter peas under the umbrella of compulsory insurance and, beans, clover as green fodders and onion, garlic, summer under the umbrella of optional insurance in addition to the necessity of reviewing these crops periodically every three years in the light of economical and environmental fluctuations and risk.